The War in Ukraine

[Rudburg]

I wonder if the prison guards in Russia have cotton on to the fact that, once the majority of Russians in Prison have been finally all combed out and sent to the front as canon fodder that they, the Guards are surplus labour and they will be next in line to man the line in Kherson, Melitopol, Andrivvka and Dontesk?

"Good news friend, even though no prisoners, the state has decided that you still get to be a guard!"

"Really, where?"

"Ha ha, that's the good part. The 12th Guards Tank Regiment! That truck will take you there. I'm told you will be serving with some of your old friends from the prison."

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790723823647494404

 

[Skysix]

Taking open country and small villages forward of the main defensive lines is one think. Taking a major urban centre and transportation hub is another. I don’t think the city is at risk of overrun.

But is in danger of being flattened by drones, missies, arty and FAB glide bombs without air defense and 155/152

 

[Skysix]

Maybe more than just IT support ....

Estonia 'seriously' discussing sending troops to 'rear' jobs in Ukraine: Official - Breaking Defense

The national security advisor to the Estonian president is the latest NATO nation official to weigh into the debate over the wisdom of foreign forces in Ukraine, while a senior British officer said it's still "not a path that the [UK] Prime Minister wants to go down."

breakingdefense.com

NATO member Estonia is 'seriously' discussing sending troops to fill non-combat roles in Ukraine, security advisor says

Madis Roll, national security advisor to Estonia's president, said discussions centered on sending troops to fill "rear" roles amid Ukraine's manpower crunch.

ca.news.yahoo.com

... although there is a bit of ... clarification via EST & some UKR media about the idea -- understandably, considering the magnitude of move sending NATO troops into UKR, even in support roles, would be.

Defense minister: Ideas about sending soldiers to Ukraine have gone nowhere

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said the idea to send NATO soldiers to Ukraine has not gone anywhere, either in Estonia or the European Union.

news.err.ee

Estonian defence minister denies “serious talks” to send European troops to Ukraine are underway

Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defence of Estonia, has said that the suggestion to send troops to Ukraine has not found support neither in Estonia nor at the European Union level.

www.pravda.com.ua

This is very weird to me. NATO and the EU can't put uniformed military members into a country that is an ally (and technically is not at "war" with Russia)? They are letting Russia decide where they can send their military???

This "escalation management" strategy (and telling Russia what they will NOT do) is stupid. "Hey there schoolyard bully, I am not going to walk by you or tell on you because I am SCARED you MIGHT hit my friend again"

Such crap. Instead of "I am going to step between you and my friend and if you try to hit him or hit me I will smash you in the face with this brick so fuck right off to where you came from" Russia's potential (under 1% risk) for using tactical nukes or causing a 'dirty bomb' event at a power plant is like the bully using a knife on the kid when the bigger friend has a CCW and experience using it. Suicidal.

Putin does not have a death wish, but he WILL take everything he can steal or smash and grab before he gets his lights punched out. Only then will he stop.

 

[McG]

This "escalation management" strategy (and telling Russia what they will NOT do) is stupid.

Indeed. Announcing your red line lets the other guy know how far he can run before he has to slow down and start testing again. You quickly give-up your manœuvre space for options below hitting him with a missile.

 

[quadrapiper]

Indeed. Announcing your red line lets the other guy know how far he can run before he has to slow down and start testing again. You quickly give-up your manœuvre space for options below hitting him with a missile.

Yeah, unless you're using it as an information strategy and intend to sucker-punch the target. I'd had a vague hope at least some of the F-16 delay was a lie, for example, and that a suitable moment would be found for a live reveal.

 

[QV]

Indeed. Announcing your red line lets the other guy know how far he can run before he has to slow down and start testing again. You quickly give-up your manœuvre space for options below hitting him with a missile.

Well, Biden did say he wouldn't oppose a small incursion so there is that...

 

[KevinB]

Well, Biden did say he wouldn't oppose a small incursion so there is that...

Snake Sullivan is a hand wringing pussy.

But we finally came out and allowed the Ukraine to target what they need to with US weapons.

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790771027212984531

 

[daftandbarmy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790771027212984531

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790778119798005864

 

[KevinB]

Another rough night for Russians, but not rough enough…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790837654440849736

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790840367551558083

 

[KevinB]

Sec Blinken’s statement

https://www.state.gov/a-free-prosperous-and-secure-future-for-ukraine/

 

[Maxman1]

2 Russian MiG-31, S-400, fuel depot destroyed in last night attack on Crimea

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791121840103891158

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791053739903590569

 

[Skysix]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791121840103891158

I am not sure where the proof is that Ukraine has been attacking across the border into Russia for over a year. Unless you consider the occupied territories of Ukraine as Russia or the Russian rebels as Ukrainian.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I am not sure where the proof is that Ukraine has been attacking across the border into Russia for over a year. Unless you consider the occupied territories of Ukraine as Russia or the Russian rebels as Ukrainian.

It has been all over youtube.

Yeah, the Russian rebels have been doing the ground raids around Belgorad, but there have been no shortage of Drone strikes into Russia proper.

 

[KevinB]

I am not sure where the proof is that Ukraine has been attacking across the border into Russia for over a year. Unless you consider the occupied territories of Ukraine as Russia or the Russian rebels as Ukrainian.

“Russian Rebels”. Who while most of them are ethnic Russian, are members of the AFU…

 

[Skysix]

It has been all over youtube.

Yeah, the Russian rebels have been doing the ground raids around Belgorad, but there have been no shortage of Drone strikes into Russia proper.

My misunderstanding. I thought they were referring to ground incursions