Who needs sailors anyway?

[GR66]

So is the Kraken on Crack, or what?

It's not just a Canadian thing...

Singapore’s Navy inks modernization deals amid personnel shortage

The country has embarked on numerous joint training exercises and sent troops to various countries to ease the problem, but end strength remains a problem.

www.defensenews.com

Navy Misses All Recruiting Goals in FY 2023, Raises Goals for FY 2024 - USNI News

Despite a year of pilot programs aimed at getting new sailors, the Navy missed all its recruiting goals in Fiscal Year 2023, resulting in higher goals for next year, the sea service announced Tuesday. The Navy missed its enlisted sailor goal by 7,464, according to the sea service’s numbers...

news.usni.org

Not enough sailors – another Royal Navy personnel crisis is brewing | Navy Lookout

www.navylookout.com

French military confronts challenge of personnel quitting

Private sector opportunities, a fantasized vision of military life and a lack of societal recognition are all listed as reasons why more people are leaving the armed forces, often before their contracts end.

www.lemonde.fr

ADF-Retention

Scale of the retention challenge The Department of Defence’s (Defence) plan to grow its military and civilian permanent workforce to over 101,000 by 2040 is an ambitious undertaking. Defence’s March 2023 submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, D

www.aph.gov.au

How the New Zealand Navy plans to fix its sailor and ship shortfalls

“We have lost significant flexibility,” said Rear Adm. David Proctor, “and we have lost the ability to undertake a number of concurrent activities.”

www.defensenews.com

Navies (and militaries in general) throughout the Western world are facing recruiting shortages and retention issues...especially among mid-rank NCM's. Maybe it's time to accept the fact that we're not going to be able to attract and keep personnel the way we did in the past and look at radically new approaches to meeting our military objectives?

 

[Eaglelord17]

It's not just a Canadian thing...

Singapore’s Navy inks modernization deals amid personnel shortage

The country has embarked on numerous joint training exercises and sent troops to various countries to ease the problem, but end strength remains a problem.

www.defensenews.com

Navy Misses All Recruiting Goals in FY 2023, Raises Goals for FY 2024 - USNI News

Despite a year of pilot programs aimed at getting new sailors, the Navy missed all its recruiting goals in Fiscal Year 2023, resulting in higher goals for next year, the sea service announced Tuesday. The Navy missed its enlisted sailor goal by 7,464, according to the sea service’s numbers...

news.usni.org

Not enough sailors – another Royal Navy personnel crisis is brewing | Navy Lookout

www.navylookout.com

French military confronts challenge of personnel quitting

Private sector opportunities, a fantasized vision of military life and a lack of societal recognition are all listed as reasons why more people are leaving the armed forces, often before their contracts end.

www.lemonde.fr

ADF-Retention

Scale of the retention challenge The Department of Defence’s (Defence) plan to grow its military and civilian permanent workforce to over 101,000 by 2040 is an ambitious undertaking. Defence’s March 2023 submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, D

www.aph.gov.au

How the New Zealand Navy plans to fix its sailor and ship shortfalls

“We have lost significant flexibility,” said Rear Adm. David Proctor, “and we have lost the ability to undertake a number of concurrent activities.”

www.defensenews.com

Navies (and militaries in general) throughout the Western world are facing recruiting shortages and retention issues...especially among mid-rank NCM's. Maybe it's time to accept the fact that we're not going to be able to attract and keep personnel the way we did in the past and look at radically new approaches to meeting our military objectives?

The flip side is most the reasons why people enjoyed the military in the past have been removed and replaced with not nearly as fun alternatives.

We have basically taken a middle road which makes no one happy. From what I can tell the CAF isn’t doing too bad on the recruiting side of things, it’s retention which is really hurting it.

Coupled with the fact we have created a bunch of benefits basically designed to make it much easier for people to leave, of course that’s the option they are going to take.

 

[Kirkhill]

And yet we still intend to build berths for sailors we don't have.

 

[GR66]

The flip side is most the reasons why people enjoyed the military in the past have been removed and replaced with not nearly as fun alternatives.

We have basically taken a middle road which makes no one happy. From what I can tell the CAF isn’t doing too bad on the recruiting side of things, it’s retention which is really hurting it.

Coupled with the fact we have created a bunch of benefits basically designed to make it much easier for people to leave, of course that’s the option they are going to take.

But the fact is that a wide swath of Western countries with highly varying incentives, benefits, pay levels and disincentives are all experiencing similar personnel shortages. That suggests something broader than just CAF-specific policies are at play here. There has been a paradigm shift and short of conscription I think that war by Western nations that are not physically on the front line against an aggressive neighbour will be fighting with less people. I don't think we've acknowledged that yet or begun to re-design our military to take that into account.

 

[dimsum]

But the fact is that a wide swath of Western countries with highly varying incentives, benefits, pay levels and disincentives are all experiencing similar personnel shortages. That suggests something broader than just CAF-specific policies are at play here.

Absolutely.

The Australian military is highly paid, (generally) located in large urban areas, and concentrate many of their forces in one base so postings aren’t as frequent. That should have been 3 “silver bullets” for the CAF Reddit crowd, yet they are losing people.

That’s gotta say something.

 

[Eaglelord17]

But the fact is that a wide swath of Western countries with highly varying incentives, benefits, pay levels and disincentives are all experiencing similar personnel shortages. That suggests something broader than just CAF-specific policies are at play here. There has been a paradigm shift and short of conscription I think that war by Western nations that are not physically on the front line against an aggressive neighbour will be fighting with less people. I don't think we've acknowledged that yet or begun to re-design our military to take that into account.

Except those militaries also have much higher people per capita than Canada.

There is enough young people willing to serve for the limited number of positions we have (96k for a our population of 40m vs say Australias 90k for 26m). We just aren’t retaining anyone, and we are also actively driving away the traditional recruiting base which historically easily made those numbers.

Our numbers realistically are pathetic considering its about 70% what Australia expects per capita (1:416 people Canada, 1:288 people Australia). Until we start really trying to expand the military (which I see as extremely unlikely at the moment), our population is more than sufficient to sustain this size with or without the populations culture shift.

We just have to A) get them in uniform quicker as our process is slow and inefficient, and B) retain them.

 

[Kirkhill]

Is it even just a Western problem?

India has riots over terms of service.

‘We have been cheated’: India’s youth reject new army jobs scheme

Plan to hire soldiers on four-year contracts sparks violent protests, with thousands of young men demanding a rollback.

www.aljazeera.com

For Indians the army is a stable job but the government is paying 23% of the defence budget in pensions and the force is older than the government would like. The government introduced short term, 4 year, contracts, with the intention of releasing 75% of the recruits after 4 years and retaining 25%. The recruits want to know what they are supposed to do when they are "retired" after 4 years without a pension.


China

China is desperately trying to fill its military ranks

China is offering benefits to lure young people to join the military.

www.newsweek.com

And of course Russia.....

Russia Struggles to Fill Ranks: The Growing Challenge of Military Recruitment

Despite offering significant salaries and raising the conscription age limits, Russia continues to grapple with recruitment challenges.

news.clearancejobs.com

....

Perhaps this is what is meant by democracies don't make war. Given half a chance people would sooner be doing other things than risking their lives and killing people. The preferred alternative is a life, a home, a family and a stable income.

 

[Stoker]

And yet we still intend to build berths for sailors we don't have.

Do you mean build ships?

 

[Furniture]

And yet we still intend to build berths for sailors we don't have.

Because sailors are easier to train quickly than ships are to build quickly. You go to war with what you have, so if you don't plan for them the ships you will need, you won't have them.

But the fact is that a wide swath of Western countries with highly varying incentives, benefits, pay levels and disincentives are all experiencing similar personnel shortages. That suggests something broader than just CAF-specific policies are at play here. There has been a paradigm shift and short of conscription I think that war by Western nations that are not physically on the front line against an aggressive neighbour will be fighting with less people. I don't think we've acknowledged that yet or begun to re-design our military to take that into account.

There is also the fact that demographics in Western nations mean there is competition for employees, unlike in previous generations where employers turned away most applicants. Militaries around the world have long relied on attracting large numbers of young men with nothing else to do, then picking the ones they wanted the most from that large pool. That model of recruitment isn't well suited to the world we now live in, and militaries are slow to change.

What does the corporate world do to attract talent? What can the CAF learn form that and apply to our system(if TB allows it)?

 

[Kirkhill]

Do you mean build ships?

No. I mean bunks for sailors.

With 100 sailors I can crew 7 Maersk style Triple E container ships, 1 Danish Absalon frigate or half of a CSC.

Which is more important? The number of sailors at sea or the number of hulls at sea?

I will continue to argue that the number of hulls is the critical parameter. While there is an irreducible number of sailors necessary (although that number is at risk of becoming vanishingly small in the foreseeable future) ships should be seen more like highly automated factories where the operators are primarily technicians.

 

[Kirkhill]

Because sailors are easier to train quickly than ships are to build quickly. You go to war with what you have, so if you don't plan for them the ships you will need, you won't have them.

Are they?

What is a sailor? How many swabbies and deckhands are there on board? On the other hand how many welders, fitters, mechanics, electricians, radar techs, signallers, ammo techs, weapons techs, logisticians, navigators.....

The people that the navy needs to run the equipment in the ship are hard to train and hard to come by.

....

The counter argument can be that most people in the world are using technology that they have no idea how it works, or even how to fully utilize it. They use it to do what they need it to do until it breaks and then they get another one - one that they have relearn all over again.

But that technology revolution has happened since the CPFs hit the water and is not reflected in that generation of ships.

Both the ships and the sailors are different.

....

Fully exploiting the new technologies will require different ships and different expectations of the sailors. Can you build a ship that is compatible with plug'n'play components and gamer operators?

There is also the fact that demographics in Western nations mean there is competition for employees, unlike in previous generations where employers turned away most applicants. Militaries around the world have long relied on attracting large numbers of young men with nothing else to do, then picking the ones they wanted the most from that large pool. That model of recruitment isn't well suited to the world we now live in, and militaries are slow to change.

What does the corporate world do to attract talent? What can the CAF learn form that and apply to our system(if TB allows it)?

Killing and dying are pretty hard sells at the best of times. The corporate world doesn't have that mountain to climb when recruiting.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

If only there was a country more or less friendly to the West who produces a large number of mariners every year who would leap at the chance to sail on Western ships and possibly gain citizenship.........

I need some patis.

 

[Kirkhill]

If only there was a country more or less friendly to the West who produces a large number of mariners every year who would leap at the chance to sail on Western ships and possibly gain citizenship.........

I need some patis.

Again though, what are you looking for those sailors to do? Scrub decks and throw lines? Or fix the radar?

Or can you mount those noisy emitters on unattended self propelled barges and send out an MRT when one of them goes on the fritz?

 

[Furniture]

Are they?

What is a sailor? How many swabbies and deckhands are there on board? On the other hand how many welders, fitters, mechanics, electricians, radar techs, signallers, ammo techs, weapons techs, logisticians, navigators.....

The people that the navy needs to run the equipment in the ship are hard to train and hard to come by.

In the event of a war those experts are in the system now, and the new recruits will learn from them on the job after a condensed training programme. All of the S1s become MS' to teach/mentor the new S3s. The same way a core of RCN sailors was used to train a bunch of farm kids back in the day.

As you pointed out, people already know how to do a lot of the basics of using technology, we just need to teach them how to refine those skills in the ways that they are needed for each job.

Fully exploiting the new technologies will require different ships and different expectations of the sailors. Can you build a ship that is compatible with plug'n'play components and gamer operators?

I suspect you'll find the current CMS is pretty compatible with gamers skillz, so the future is already here.

Killing and dying are pretty hard sells at the best of times. The corporate world doesn't have that mountain to climb when recruiting.

When we were having adventures in Afghanistan we had young men lining up to go, so I don't think killing and dying are the hard part.

My guess is the daily expectations/drawbacks are more of what the current batch of young people don't want. For example, I've been in for just shy of 23 years and I don't know where I'll be living next year... There is an ever diminishing pool of people willing to accept that type of expectation for a decent job with good pay.

 

[Kirkhill]

In the event of a war those experts are in the system now, and the new recruits will learn from them on the job after a condensed training programme. All of the S1s become MS' to teach/mentor the new S3s. The same way a core of RCN sailors was used to train a bunch of farm kids back in the day.

As you pointed out, people already know how to do a lot of the basics of using technology, we just need to teach them how to refine those skills in the ways that they are needed for each job.

For clarity, are we talking about manning the existing fleet or the future fleet?

I suspect you'll find the current CMS is pretty compatible with gamers skillz, so the future is already here.

When we were having adventures in Afghanistan we had young men lining up to go, so I don't think killing and dying are the hard part.

My guess is the daily expectations/drawbacks are more of what the current batch of young people don't want. For example, I've been in for just shy of 23 years and I don't know where I'll be living next year... There is an ever diminishing pool of people willing to accept that type of expectation for a decent job with good pay.

When you are a single youngster looking for adventure risks look different than they do when you are married with kids and a mortgage. The job you signed up for at 18 may look a lot different at 25.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Again though, what are you looking for those sailors to do? Scrub decks and throw lines? Or fix the radar?

Or can you mount those noisy emitters on unattended self propelled barges and send out an MRT when one of them goes on the fritz?

Who is going to maintain those unmanned vessels? I can ensure that the Shipyards are short people already, and dock space is at a premium. Ships and vessels wear very quickly as do all the ancillary systems on them. You need at least one third of the crew of that size vessel on the mothership just to maintain the "unmanned vessel".

 

[Kirkhill]

Who is going to maintain those unmanned vessels? I can ensure that the Shipyards are short people already, and dock space is at a premium. Ships and vessels wear very quickly as do all the ancillary systems on them. You need at least one third of the crew of that size vessel on the mothership just to maintain the "unmanned vessel".

Let's take another tack. What does it take to float a sensor? Or 32 Mk41 cells?

How much styrofoam?

What does it take to power such a lump so that it can hold position? A sail? A sea anchor?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Let's take another tack. What does it take to float a sensor? Or 32 Mk41 cells?

How much styrofoam?

What does it take to power such a lump so that it can hold position? A sail? A sea anchor?

If you look at the unmanned UGV's used by the Ukrainians you see parallels to the development of the torpedo boat. In fact they are look a lot like the early Torpedo boats.
Problem with putting millions of dollars onto a unmanned asset is how do you protect that from being boarded by "fishermen" after signals to it have been jammed?

 

[Kirkhill]

If you look at the unmanned UGV's used by the Ukrainians you see parallels to the development of the torpedo boat. In fact they are look a lot like the early Torpedo boats.
Problem with putting millions of dollars onto a unmanned asset is how do you protect that from being boarded by "fishermen" after signals to it have been jammed?

Blow it in place and build another. Deadman switch restrained by a signal until it is jammed.

 

[Kirkhill]

And this afternoon's headline in the Telegraph

Navy has so few sailors it has to decommission ships

New frigates unable to be manned unless two existing warships are taken out of service

www.telegraph.co.uk

It comes at a time when the Armed Forces is experiencing a significant recruitment crisis, with the Navy having suffered a collapse in the flow of new recruits into the service.

And the RN has newer toys than the RCN.